Sports Betting Information
Sports betting is the activity of predicting sports results and placing a wager on the outcome. The frequency of sports bet upon varies by culture, with the vast majority of bets being placed on association football, American football, basketball, baseball, hockey, mixed martial arts, and boxing at both the amateur and professional levels. Sports betting can also extend to non-athletic events, such as reality show contests and political elections, and non-human contests such as horse racing, greyhound racing.Sports bettors place their wagers either legally, through a bookmaker/sportsbook, or illegally through privately run enterprises referred to as “bookies”. The term “book” being a reference to the books used by wagebrokers to track wagers, payouts, and debts. The majority of legal sportsbooks are found online, operated over the internet from jurisdictions separate from the clients they serve, usually to get around various gambling laws in select markets.
Broker/Bookmaking:
The broker/bookmaker functions: as a market maker for sports wagers, most of which have a binary outcome: a team either wins or loses. The broker/bookmaker accepts both wagers, and maintains a spread which will ensure a profit regardless of the outcome of the wager.Brokers/Bookmakers usually hold an 11-10 advantage over their customers—for small wagers it is closer to a 6-5 advantage—so the broker/bookmaker will most likely survive over the long term. Successful brokers/bookmakers must be able to withstand a large short term loss.
Odds:
Odds for different outcomes in single bet are presented either in European format (decimal odds), UK format (fractional odds), or American format (money line odds). European format (decimal odds) are used in continental Europe, Canada, and Australia. They are the ratio of the full payout to the stake, in a decimal format. Decimal odds of 2.00 are an even bet. UK format (fractional odds) are used by British bookmakers. They are the ratio of the amount won to the stake – the solidus “/” is pronounced “to” for example 7/1 “seven to one”. Fractional odds of 1/1 are an even bet. US format odds are the amount won on a 100 stake when positive and the stake needed to win 100 when negative. US odds of 100 are an even bet.
Decimal |
Fractional |
US |
Hong Kong |
Indo |
Malaya |
Implied probability |
|||
1.50 |
1/2 |
-200 |
0.50 |
-2.00 |
0.50 |
1 in 1.5 = 67% |
|||
2.00 |
Evs (1/1) |
+100 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1 in 2 = 50% |
|||
2.50 |
6/4 |
+150 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
-0.67 |
1 in 2.5 = 40% |
|||
3.00 |
2/1 |
+200 |
2.00 |
2.00 |
-0.50 |
1 in 3 = 33% |
|||
Conversion formulas |
|||||||||
x |
To |
Do this |
|||||||
Decimal |
Fractional |
x-1, then convert to fraction |
|||||||
Decimal |
US |
100*(x-1) if x>2; -100/(x-1) if x<2 |
|||||||
Fractional |
Decimal |
divide fraction, then x+1 |
|||||||
Fractional |
US |
divide fraction, then 100*x if x>=1; -100/x if x<1 |
|||||||
US |
Decimal |
(x/100)+1 if x>0; (-100/x)+1 if x<0 |
|||||||
US |
Fractional |
x/100, if x>0; -100/x, if x<0 |
|||||||
Decimal |
Hong Kong |
x-1 |
|||||||
Hong Kong |
Indo |
x if x>=1; (1/x)*-1 if x<1 |
|||||||
Hong Kong |
Malaya |
x if x<=1; (1/x)*-1 if x>1 |
In Asian betting markets, other frequently used formats for expressing odds include Hong Kong, Malaysian, and Indonesian-style odds formats. Odds are also quite often expressed in terms of implied probability, which corresponds to the probability with which the event in question would need to occur for the bet to be a break-even proposition (on the average).
Many on-line tools also exist for automated conversion between these odds formats.
In setting odds, the bookmaker is subject to a number of limitations.
The probability implied by the odds should be greater than the truprobability for each possible outcome to guarantee positive expected profit.
If the wagers on each outcome are made in ratio to the implied odds, then the bookmaker is guaranteed a profit (balanced book).
Sports betting systems:
Sports betting systems refers to a set of events that when combined for a particular game for a particular sport represents a profitable betting scenario. Since sports betting involves humans, there is no deterministic edge to the house or the gambler. Systems supposedly allow the gambler to have an edge.
Sportsbooks use systems in their analysis to set more accurate odds. Therefore the novice gambler may believe that using a system will always work, but it is the general consensus that at some point the odds makers will have adjusted for the system to make it no longer profitable. Very short-lived systems are called trends. Any single event that estimates a selection to have a higher likelihood of winning is called an angle as they are meant to be used in conjunction with other angles and trends to produce systems.
Betting on systems:
Systems can be deceiving. Any sample space can be constrained enough with meaningless criteria to create the illusion of a profitable betting system. For example, a coin can be flipped with heads being home teams and tails being road teams. Heads and tails each have a 50% probability of landing but if the amount of flips is limited to a small number, it is conceivable to create the illusion of predicting heads will come up 75% of the time.
That, in conjunction with the fact that sportsbooks adjust their odds according to the systems makes it difficult to follow systems indefinitely. The sportsbooks are slower to adjust the odds in some sports versus other sports depending on the number of games played and the amount of money they take in from bettors.
Sports betting systems have not always been well trusted or liked by bettors. The stigma is that a sporting event has too many intangibles that a machine can’t predict. However, things have begun to change recently as owners of teams have begun to take notice of the value in statistics. Books like Sabermetrics, by Bill James, and Basketball on Paper by Dean Oliver, have begun to bring detailed statistical analysis to the forefront of sports betting systems. Blogs are now being written more frequently about the topic and sports handicapping services have made claims of great success using sports betting systems from advanced statistical research.
Determining systems:
Determining systems: is a matter of using computer analysis tools and extracting all the possible games that meet a bettor’s criteria. Then the bettor analyzes the results of those games to make a determination if one team is favored over the other.
Two Types of Betting Systems:
Regression analysis: Is a type of statistical technique used to determine the important variables that affect the outcome of the event. In the case of sports betting this is usually done with multivariate linear regression. Because sports events are very complicated and there are many variables it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to be able to accurately identify each variable that affects the outcome of the game. Also, regression analysis assigns a “weight” to each variable that identifies how much it affects the outcome of the event.
For example, Advanced NFL Stats ran a multivariate linear test on American football games. The results determined that the most important aspect to winning the game was passing efficiency. One of the problems that results from using linear regression is determining causation vs correlation. Simply put, it is being able to identify the difference between something causing an event and something happening because of an event. For example, every time I have a temperature over 100 degrees Fahrenheit I also have a sore throat. Is the high temperature the cause of the sore throat or are they merely correlated, happening at the same time? Regression analysis will be able to identify that the events occur together, but not if one causes the other.
Statistical anomalies: These are deviations from the common rule and give you a competitive advantage. Maybe you surprised to know that most scores in an American football game happen only in the 3 and 7 point markers? Of course, there are always missed extra points, safeties and conversions, but when compared to all points scored, they only account for a minor percentage. This point statistical distribution factor opens up the possibility of statistical anomalies.
To find anomalies you need to cautiously review players and team statistics. You should also know significant factors such as: injuries, does the team tend to win more in indoor or outdoor sports stadiums, weather (for outdoor games), what atmospheric conditions is the team used to playing in, etc. You can also look for anomalies based on public opinion and team psyche.
Factors that are used into determining betting systems are a mix of psychological, motivational, biological, situational factors that, based on past performances, support one team over another. It is generally believed that more than one factor pointing towards a team is needed to have a successful betting system.